Luka Dončić leads NBA MVP ladder, but odds show no runaway race

Luka Dončić is No. 1 on NBA.com's debut Kia MVP Ladder, updated Nov. 6, but the betting and prediction markets describe a tight race with Victor Wembanyama rather than a runaway.

What the MVP Ladder says

NBA.com ranks Dončić first and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander third, with Tyrese Maxey, Jayson Tatum and Alperen Şengün also in the top five.

The numbers behind Dončić's case

Dončić is averaging 38.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 8.0 assists, shooting 49.5% from the field, 43.1% from three and 89.3% from the line, according to ESPN's game log and Yahoo Sports. ESPN ranks him first in the league in scoring, 25th in rebounds and fifth in assists. NBA.com says he has won two of the past three scoring titles and is again the early leader by a wide margin.

His recent run is historic, per ESPN. After 52 points at Utah on Oct. 25, he scored 41, 37, 45, 42 and 40 in his next five games. ESPN reports:

• He is the first player in NBA history with six straight games of at least 35 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 made threes.
• He joined Kobe Bryant and Elgin Baylor as the only Lakers with six straight 35-point games.
• It was his sixth straight game with 20 or more first-half points. ESPN says only Dončić (with Dallas in 2023) and Allen Iverson (2005) have done that in the past 30 seasons.

The Lakers beat Sacramento 116-103 on Nov. 4 to improve to 7-2, per ESPN. Basketnews says they sit second in the West. NBA.com notes this is the Lakers' first season after LeBron James' departure.

Why the markets say "close," not "runaway"

Odds tell a tighter story. SI Betting made Dončić the new favorite at +200, with Wembanyama at +220 and Gilgeous-Alexander at +400.

Squawka, checking Nov. 3, had the two sharing the favorite spot at +200 on the middle price. VegasInsider's table shows Dončić at +200 at most books and carries a headline saying Wembanyama leads early.

Prediction markets lean slightly toward Wembanyama. Kalshi lists him at 36%, Dončić at 35% and Gilgeous-Alexander at 13%. Polymarket has Wembanyama at 36% and Dončić at 34.7%.

Where the race stands

Dončić is a frontrunner and, by the ladder and some sportsbooks, the leader. But the gap to Wembanyama is a point or two in implied probability, and several markets had Wembanyama marginally ahead. Prices will keep moving with every game.